GDP tommorow

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GDP tommorow

Post  slg on Tue Apr 28, 2009 9:21 pm

After a number of optimistic economic reports, from home sales to consumer confidence, people may be hoping this GDP number tommorow to be better than expected. Do we expect the number to be worse than what analysts expect? If we do, this will be the evidence of deflationary spiral we have been fearing/expecting. But if the converse happens, people are seriously going to think the bottom has occured, and buying volume could be back.

What do you think?

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Re: GDP tommorow

Post  Finance Fanatic on Wed Apr 29, 2009 1:29 am

Either way I feel that any number will be attempted to be spun as a positive. If its better than expected, than we hear that the worse is over. If it's worse... they say that it is expected to be worse as it is backward pointing data. It's a tough fight to win!
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WOW, them bulls....

Post  Boogy on Wed Apr 29, 2009 10:35 am

Well, another bull bounce. This is getting way over done and and over blown. GDP is -6.1.
This is disasterous, yet short covering rally.....again.
SRS is holding up well, however wondering if this decay's to FAZ levels ?????
Anyone care to take a stab at that question about SRS ! Thanks

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Re: GDP tommorow

Post  Finance Fanatic on Wed Apr 29, 2009 4:48 pm

We just need to get through this wilderness of speculation... march/april are always rally months. I believe May will bring in new fears.
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Re: GDP tommorow

Post  slg on Wed Apr 29, 2009 5:56 pm

the basis for today's rally:

"A government report showed consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, climbed at a 2.2 percent annual pace last quarter, the most in two years. "

Would be surprised if this can last. With things so discounted, people went from not buying anything, to just picking up stuff cheaply.

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Re: GDP tommorow

Post  Finance Fanatic on Wed Apr 29, 2009 6:02 pm

With that increase in consumer spending came a 3.4% decrease in inventories, saying that retailers have slashed prices. Cut big macs to 50 cents, and I'll buy more of them.
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